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Voter turnout will be the decider in Lisbon referendum (29/5/08)

May 29, 2008 at 3:07 pm Leave a comment

With roughly one in four voters still unsure which way to go in the Lisbon Treaty referendum on June 12th, both the Yes and No sides have one thing in common during the final weeks of their campaigns – motivating people to vote.
Ireland’s infamous experience with the Nice Treaty proves that voter turnout is a crucial factor in deciding the outcome of a national ballot. In May 2001, the electorate rejected the Nice Treaty by a margin of 54% to 46%. But just over a third of those eligible to vote had done so. When the government ran a second poll in October 2002, almost twice as many people turned out to vote, and the referendum was carried by 63% to 37%. The moral of the story is clear – a large turnout generally means victory for the Yes side.
The latest Red C/Sunday Business Post poll on Lisbon indicates the following tally: 41% say they will vote Yes, 33% No, and 26% don’t know.
The poll also shows a slight gain for the No side in recent weeks, possibly helped along perhaps by recent party squabbles in the Yes side as tensions surface about who will be to blame should the treaty fall. The Yes side in turn has been aided unwillingly by the more radical right and left-wing elements of the No family, who serve only to alienate mainstream voters.
But perhaps the most telling question for voters is how many of them will actually go the polling booths. The large sector of undecided voters, and the commonly-expressed view that the treaty is hard to understand, leaves a lot of fertile soil for both sides to battle over as the countdown begins. Historically, most voters only make up their minds how they will vote about seven to ten days before a European referendum. Like sluggish students facing exams, we tend leave it until the last moment to cram in the information and form a view. The race is on. As EU Commissioner Charlie McCreevy said nobly in a recent radio interview, ‘Wicklow beat Kildare in the GAA championships in Croke Park – they were the better team. Let the best team win the referendum.’

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